What is the current probability for "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner"?

Current Polymarket odds for "LA-05 Republican Primary Winner": Blake Miguez 9%, Michael Echols 2%, Austin Magee 2% (top 3 of 8 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 5/16/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/310660. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

pasttrade on Polymarket

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event8 outcomes

LA-05 Republican Primary Winner

·Politics·ends May 16, 2026

vol cum

$43.4k

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

May 16, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 8

PoliticsLouisiana Primaryprimary electionsRepublican PrimaryPrimariesUS ElectionElectionsHouse Primary

marketselected outcome

Blake Miguez

rank #1

United States

9¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$21.8k

vol 24h

spread

0.01

ends

May 16, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

timeline

opened · Mar 26, 2026closedresolved · May 16, 2026

prices over time · Blake Miguez highlighted

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history