What is the current probability for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028": J.D. Vance 51%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49%, Marco Rubio 17% (top 3 of 44 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Nov 7, 2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/31875. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event44 outcomes

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

·Politics·ends Nov 7, 2028

vol cum

$704.2M

vol 24h

$149.2k

outcomes

ends

Nov 7, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 44

United StatesPoliticsUS ElectionElectionsWorld ElectionsGlobal ElectionsEarn 4%Primaries

marketselected outcome

J.D. Vance

rank #1

United States

51¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$15.6M

vol 24h

$8.3k

spread

0.00

ends

Nov 7, 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

timeline

opened · Jul 11, 2025opencloses · Nov 7, 2028

J.D. Vance · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history