What is the current probability for "Israeli parliament dissolved by...?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?": July 31 72%, July 15 52%, June 30 31% (top 3 of 9 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/41359. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event9 outcomes

Israeli parliament dissolved by...?

·World·ends Jul 31, 2026

vol cum

$1.4M

vol 24h

$42.8k

outcomes

ends

Jul 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 9

WorldIsraelPoliticsMiddle EastInternational Election Props

marketselected outcome

July 31

rank #1

Israel

72¢

▲ 5.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$55.8k

vol 24h

$1.7k

spread

0.02

ends

Jul 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between January 27 and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

timeline

opened · May 25, 2026opencloses · Jul 31, 2026

July 31 · prices over time

−24h

now

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