What is the current probability for "World Cup: Nation to Reach Final"?

Current Polymarket odds for "World Cup: Nation to Reach Final": France 67%, Argentina 40%, England 38% (top 3 of 48 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/20/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/414457. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event48 outcomes

World Cup: Nation to Reach Final

·Sports·ends Jul 20, 2026

vol cum

$11.4M

vol 24h

$450.7k

outcomes

ends

Jul 20, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 48

2026 FIFA World CupSoccerFIFA World CupSportsTeam PropsTournament Futures

marketselected outcome

France

rank #1

67¢

▲ 15.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$1.1M

vol 24h

$144.6k

spread

0.01

ends

Jul 20, 2026

This market will resolve “Yes” if the listed team reaches the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed nation to advance to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 FIFA World Cup final matchup has not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Apr 27, 2026opencloses · Jul 20, 2026

France · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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