What is the current probability for "UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?"?

"Yes" is currently 4% on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 12/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/427650. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

·Politics

United Arab EmiratesSaudi Arabia

▲ 0.1pp

24h change

vol cum

$109k

vol 24h

$12.3k

spread

0.00

ends

Dec 31, 2026

Yes 4¢

No 96¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

GeopoliticsMiddle Eastsaudi arabiaOilUAEOPEC

timeline

opened · Apr 28, 2026opencloses · Dec 31, 2026

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