What is the current probability for "Brazil Presidential Election"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Brazil Presidential Election": Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 65%, Flávio Bolsonaro 26%, Renan Santos 7% (top 3 of 18 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 10/4/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/45915. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event18 outcomes

Brazil Presidential Election

·Politics·ends Oct 4, 2026

vol cum

$119.3M

vol 24h

$617.3k

outcomes

ends

Oct 4, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 18

PoliticsMacro Election 2Main ElectionBrazilGlobal ElectionsWorld ElectionsWorld

marketselected outcome

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

rank #1

Brazil

65¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$8M

vol 24h

$43.4k

spread

0.01

ends

Oct 4, 2026

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

timeline

opened · Sep 18, 2025opencloses · Oct 4, 2026

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history