What is the current probability for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Ballon d'Or Winner 2026": Harry Kane 54%, Lamine Yamal 21%, Kylian Mbappé 9% (top 3 of 32 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 10/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/48361. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

↗

event32 outcomes

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

·Sports·ends Oct 31, 2026

vol cum

$26.6M

vol 24h

$430.1k

outcomes

ends

Oct 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 32

SoccerSportsAwards

marketselected outcome

Harry Kane

rank #1

54¢

▲ 0.8pp

24h change

vol cum

$3M

vol 24h

$52.6k

spread

0.00

ends

Oct 31, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

timeline

opened · Sep 22, 2025opencloses · Oct 31, 2026

Harry Kane · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

similar markets

No similar markets for sports & price markets.