What is the current probability for "GTA VI released before November 2026?"?

"Yes" is currently 6% (+2pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 10/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/528628. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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marketsingle market

GTA VI released before November 2026?

·Culture

▲ 1.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$8.4k

vol 24h

$10

spread

0.02

ends

Oct 31, 2026

Yes 6¢

No 94¢

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.

CultureGTA VI

timeline

opened · May 27, 2026opencloses · Oct 31, 2026

prices over time · GTA VI released before November 2026? highlighted

−24h

now

volume · 24h windows

no volume history