What is the current probability for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations": Tom Cruise 73%, Ryan Gosling 69%, John Malkovich 68% (top 3 of 17 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/21/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/531533. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event17 outcomes

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

·Culture·ends Jan 21, 2027

vol cum

$631

vol 24h

$38

outcomes

ends

Jan 21, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 17

CultureAwardsOscarsMovies

marketselected outcome

Tom Cruise

rank #1

73¢

▲ 2.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$272

vol 24h

$38

spread

0.19

ends

Jan 21, 2027

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · May 27, 2026opencloses · Jan 21, 2027

prices over time · Tom Cruise highlighted

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now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

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