Question 1

What is the current probability for "Bitcoin above ___ on July 4?"?

Accepted Answer

The contested Polymarket outcomes for "Bitcoin above 50,000 on July 4?" are 54,000 94%, 56,000 87%, 58,000 73% — 2 of 11 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 7/4/2026.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/641236. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Bitcoin above ___ on July 4?

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