What is the current probability for "Bitcoin above ___ on July 5?"?

The contested Polymarket outcomes for "Bitcoin above 50,000 on July 5?" are 54,000 92%, 56,000 84%, 58,000 67% — 2 of 11 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/5/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/644717. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event11 outcomes

Bitcoin above ___ on July 5?

·Crypto·ends Jul 5, 2026

vol cum

$17.4k

vol 24h

$17.4k

outcomes

ends

Jul 5, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 11

BitcoinWeeklyMulti StrikesCryptoCrypto PricesRecurringHide From New

marketselected outcome

50,000

rank #1

98¢

▲ 48.4pp

24h change

vol cum

$2.5k

vol 24h

$2.5k

spread

0.00

ends

Jul 5, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

timeline

opened · Jun 28, 2026opencloses · Jul 5, 2026

50,000 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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