What is the current probability for "Bitcoin Up or Down on July 3?"?

"Up" is currently 44% (-6pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/3/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/655493. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 3?

·Crypto

44%

▼ 6.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$37.4k

vol 24h

$37.4k

spread

0.01

ends

Jul 3, 2026

Up 44¢

Down 56¢

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 3 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 2 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 3 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

CryptoCrypto PricesRecurringHide From NewBitcoinUp or DownToday 🚀Daily

timeline

opened · Jul 1, 2026closing sooncloses · Jul 3, 2026

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