What is the current probability for "AZ-05 Democratic Primary Winner"?

Current Polymarket odds for "AZ-05 Democratic Primary Winner": Elizabeth Lee 90%, Other 50%, Chris James 9% (top 3 of 5 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/21/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/656322. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event5 outcomes

AZ-05 Democratic Primary Winner

·Politics·ends Jul 21, 2026

vol cum

$13.3k

vol 24h

$12.7k

outcomes

ends

Jul 21, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

PoliticsElectionsPrimariesUSA ElectionHouse PrimaryArizona PrimaryJuly 21 Primariesprimary elections

marketselected outcome

Brian Hualde

rank #4

United States

2¢

▼ 0.8pp

24h change

vol cum

$2k

vol 24h

$1.9k

spread

0.01

ends

Jul 21, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on July 21, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

timeline

opened · Jul 1, 2026opencloses · Jul 21, 2026

Brian Hualde · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history