What is the current probability for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)": The Oscars 45%, The Super Bowl LX Halftime Show starring Bad Bunny 29%, The Golden Globes 25% (top 3 of 5 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 9/14/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/686059. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event5 outcomes

Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)

·Culture·ends Sep 14, 2026

vol cum

$1.3k

vol 24h

$1.3k

outcomes

ends

Sep 14, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

TVEmmysAwardsCulture

marketselected outcome

The Oscars

rank #1

United States

45¢

▼ 5.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$194

vol 24h

$194

spread

0.00

ends

Sep 14, 2026

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the nominee who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding variety special (live)”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Jul 10, 2026opencloses · Sep 14, 2026

The Oscars · prices over time

−24h

now

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