What is the current probability for "CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)"?

Current Polymarket odds for "CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)": Scott Wiener 59%, Other 50%, Connie Chan 37% (top 3 of 3 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 11/3/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/686285. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event3 outcomes

CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual)

·Politics·ends Nov 3, 2026

vol cum

$944

vol 24h

$944

outcomes

ends

Nov 3, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

MidtermsPoliticsElectionsdeprec USA ElectionHouse ElectionsNov 4 ElectionsCalifornia MidtermUS Election

marketselected outcome

Scott Wiener

rank #1

United States

59¢

▲ 13.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$557

vol 24h

$557

spread

0.02

ends

Nov 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

timeline

opened · Jul 10, 2026opencloses · Nov 3, 2026

Scott Wiener · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history