What is the current probability for "ISM Services PMI - July 2026"?

Current Polymarket odds for "ISM Services PMI - July 2026": <50.0 51%, 57.0–57.9 51%, 50.0–50.9 49% (top 3 of 10 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/5/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/688534. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event10 outcomes

ISM Services PMI - July 2026

Q: When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/5/2026.

Q: How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Q: Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/688534. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

·Economy·ends Aug 5, 2026

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ISMPMIGrowthEconomyServicesMacro Indicators

marketselected outcome

<50.0

rank #1

United States

51¢

▲ 1.0pp

24h change

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spread

0.96

ends

Aug 5, 2026

This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 5, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

timeline

opened · Jul 10, 2026opencloses · Aug 5, 2026

<50.0 · prices over time

−24h

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