What is the current probability for "World Cup Finals: Player to Miss Penalty"?

Current Polymarket odds for "World Cup Finals: Player to Miss Penalty": Lionel Messi 7%, Mikel Oyarzabal 5%, Rodri 2% (top 3 of 52 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/19/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/711797. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event52 outcomes

World Cup Finals: Player to Miss Penalty

·Sports·ends Jul 19, 2026

vol cum

$15.4k

vol 24h

$15.4k

outcomes

ends

Jul 19, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 52

SoccerSportsworld cupFIFA World Cup2026 FIFA World Cup

marketselected outcome

Lionel Messi

rank #1

7¢

▼ 0.5pp

24h change

vol cum

vol 24h

spread

0.02

ends

Jul 19, 2026

This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player misses a penalty in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final between Argentina and Spain. Otherwise the corresponding market will resolve "No". Only penalty kicks taken during regular time, stoppage time, or extra time are counted. A penalty is counted as missed if it does not result in a goal (missed or saved). Penalty shootout kicks do not count. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no results within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Jul 17, 2026opencloses · Jul 19, 2026

Lionel Messi · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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