As of 01:09 UTC on 5 Nov 2026, the highest-priced of the 5 markets in “Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?” on Polymarket are “December 31” at 3%, “July 24” at 0% and “July 31” at 0%. The event has no Polymarket-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Manifold, Polymarket, Opinion and Kalshi.
vol cum
$119.7k
vol 24h
$0
outcomes
5
ends
Jan 1, 2027
outcomesclick to inspect →
IranWorldPoliticsGeopoliticsIran Regime
marketselected outcome
December 31
rank #1
Iran
3¢
▼ 0.4pp
24h change
vol cum
$1.5k
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.03
ends
Jan 1, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
