What is the current probability for "FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner"?

Current Polymarket odds for "FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner": Bernard Taylor 74%, Other 50%, James Martin 25% (top 3 of 3 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/18/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/753284. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

↗

event3 outcomes

FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner

·Politics·ends Aug 18, 2026

vol cum

$22.5k

vol 24h

$18.8k

outcomes

ends

Aug 18, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

FloridaPoliticsElectionsPrimariesUS ElectionHouse PrimaryFlorida Primaryprimary elections

marketselected outcome

Bernard Taylor

rank #1

United States

74¢

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$11.1k

vol 24h

$8.6k

spread

0.01

ends

Aug 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

timeline

opened · Jul 27, 2026opencloses · Aug 18, 2026

Bernard Taylor · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history