What is the current probability for "Nothing Ever Happens: August"?

"Nothing" is currently 85% (+19pp in the last 24h) on Polymarket, refreshed continuously from the source's live prices.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/778993. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

marketsingle market

Nothing Ever Happens: August

·Politics

85%

▲ 18.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$1k

vol 24h

$1k

spread

0.03

ends

Aug 31, 2026

Nothing 85¢

Something 16¢

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150 - US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal - Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire - Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law - Fed emergency rate cut - Iran targets Ukraine - Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal - Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH_August.pdf

ParlaysGeopolitics

timeline

opened · Jul 31, 2026opencloses · Aug 31, 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: August

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