What is the current probability for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?": 4.0% 100%, Below 4.7% 53%, Below 4.5% 33% (top 3 of 16 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Dec 31, 2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/79123. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event16 outcomes

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

·Economy·ends Dec 31, 2026

vol cum

$296.9k

vol 24h

$10.9k

outcomes

ends

Dec 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 16

EconomyBusinessFinanceFed RatesTrumpPolitics

marketselected outcome

4.0%

rank #1 · resolved: yes

100¢

vol cum

$31.8k

vol 24h

spread

0.00

ends

Dec 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

timeline

opened · Nov 12, 2025closedresolved · Feb 28, 2026

4.0% · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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