What is the current probability for "Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on August 12?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Microsoft (MSFT) closes above $480 on August 12?": $480 90%, $490 82%, $510 10% (top 3 of 5 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/12/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/832904. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

soontrade on Polymarket

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event5 outcomes

Microsoft (MSFT) closes above ___ on August 12?

·Finance·ends Aug 12, 2026

vol cum

$1.1k

vol 24h

$1.1k

outcomes

ends

Aug 12, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

MSFTEquitiesDailyFinanceHide From NewStocks

marketselected outcome

$480

rank #1

90¢

▼ 3.8pp

24h change

vol cum

$17

vol 24h

$17

spread

0.20

ends

Aug 12, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.

timeline

opened · Aug 11, 2026closing sooncloses · Aug 12, 2026

$480 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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