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event7 outcomes

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Polymarket·Climate and Weather·ends Oct 2, 2026
vol cum
$2k
vol 24h
$1.4k
outcomes
7
ends
Oct 2, 2026
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This event tracks whether each listed U.S. regional grid operator declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) from this event's creation through that market's deadline of 11:59 PM local time on September 30, 2026. Each regional market resolves independently to "Yes" or "No" under its own operator, sources, and rules shown on that market, and more than one market may resolve "Yes". Each market is confirmed by any official communication from the relevant grid operator — its newsroom or press releases (linked in that market's rules), market or grid notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify in any market. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify in any market. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.

energyWeatherclimateClimate & Science
marketselected outcome
Mid-Atlantic (PJM)
rank #1
United States
44¢
5.0pp
24h change
vol cum
$40
vol 24h
$0
spread
0.62
ends
Oct 2, 2026

This market resolves "Yes" if PJM Interconnection declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) anywhere across its footprint from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. PJM serves all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; a qualifying declaration anywhere in that footprint counts, and "Mid-Atlantic" in the title is only a general label. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official PJM communication — its Inside Lines blog (https://insidelines.pjm.com/), emergency-procedure or market messages, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".

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opened · Aug 12, 2026opencloses · Oct 2, 2026
Mid-Atlantic (PJM) · prices over time
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