What is the current probability for "SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?": 59-61 31%, 56-58 25%, 62-64 19% (top 3 of 7 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 10/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/877063. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event7 outcomes

SER Seat Count after French Senate Election?

·Politics·ends Oct 31, 2026

vol cum

$2k

vol 24h

$2k

outcomes

ends

Oct 31, 2026

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showing 5 of 7

FrancePoliticsElectionsGlobal ElectionsFrench Senate ElectionsMain Election

marketselected outcome

59-61

rank #1

France

31¢

▼ 6.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$494

vol 24h

$494

spread

0.04

ends

Oct 31, 2026

The 2026 French Senate election is scheduled for September 27, 2026, renewing série 2 — 178 of the Senate's 348 seats. The new senators are currently scheduled to take office on October 1, 2026, and the deadline for submitting new political-group membership lists and political declarations is currently set for October 5, 2026, at 4:00 PM CEST. This market will resolve according to the number of French Senate seats held by the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER) as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST. The seat count will be the group's total membership as published by the French Senate (senat.fr), counting members (membres), related (apparentés), and affiliated (rattachés). A group will qualify as the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER) if it satisfies at least one of the following: - Its official name includes "Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain" or a clear variant thereof; - Its political declaration published in the Official Journal (Journal Officiel) of France identifies it as a continuation of the group; or - It is publicly recognized as the continuation of the Groupe Socialiste, Écologiste et Républicain (SER), and this characterization is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. A group that changes its name will continue to qualify if it meets at least one of the criteria above. If the group merges with one or more other groups, this market will resolve according to the total membership of the merged group, provided the merged group meets at least one of the criteria above. If no group qualifies, or group composition is not officially published, as of October 12, 2026, 4:00 PM CEST, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The administrative meeting of senators not appearing on the list of any group (RASNAG) will not qualify as a group for the purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be publications of the French Senate (senat.fr) and the Official Journal of France, and a consensus of credible reporting.

timeline

opened · Aug 19, 2026opencloses · Oct 31, 2026

59-61 · prices over time

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