What is the current probability for "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?": 35-38% 44%, 32-35% 43%, <32% 42% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 9/20/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/881781. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event4 outcomes

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?

Q: When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 9/20/2026.

Q: How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Q: Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/881781. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

·World·ends Sep 20, 2026

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vol 24h

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outcomesclick to inspect →

WorldGermanyPoliticsElectionsWorld ElectionsGerman ElectionsGlobal ElectionsMecklenburg-Vorpommern

marketselected outcome

35-38%

rank #1

Germany

44¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

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0.66

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Sep 20, 2026

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).

timeline

opened · Aug 20, 2026opencloses · Sep 20, 2026

35-38% · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

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