What is the current probability for "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?": <4 44%, 5 43%, 4 41% (top 3 of 4 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/886292. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event4 outcomes

Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?

Q: When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/31/2026.

Q: How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Q: Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/886292. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

·Politics·ends Aug 31, 2026

vol cum

$17.4k

vol 24h

$17.4k

outcomes

ends

Aug 31, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

GeopoliticsKim Jong UnNorth Korea

marketselected outcome

rank #1

North Korea

44¢

▲ 7.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$120

vol 24h

$120

spread

0.76

ends

Aug 31, 2026

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

timeline

opened · Aug 21, 2026opencloses · Aug 31, 2026

<4 · prices over time

−24h

now

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