What is the current probability for "Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?"?

The contested Polymarket outcomes for "Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?" are June 30 93% — 2 of 6 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 6/30/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/89548. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event6 outcomes

Labour leadership election scheduled by ...?

·Politics·ends Jun 30, 2026

vol cum

$92.8k

vol 24h

$12.7k

outcomes

ends

Jun 30, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 6

PoliticsGeopoliticsUKStarmerUK Labour LeadershipInternational Election PropsElections

marketselected outcome

June 30

rank #3

United Kingdom

93¢

▲ 52.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$30k

vol 24h

$6k

spread

0.01

ends

Jun 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

timeline

opened · Nov 24, 2025opencloses · Jun 30, 2026

June 30 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history