What is the current probability for "Where will it rain on August 29?"?

The contested Polymarket outcomes for "Where will it rain on August 29?" are Phoenix, AZ 51%, Chicago, IL 50%, Denver, CO 50% — 2 of 15 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 8/30/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/925432. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

pasttrade on Polymarket

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event15 outcomes

Where will it rain on August 29?

·Climate and Weather·ends Aug 30, 2026

vol cum

$1.3k

vol 24h

$1.2k

outcomes

ends

Aug 30, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 15

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records measurable precipitation on August 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for each station: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. Each city is an independent market. Any number of cities may resolve "Yes", including all of them or none of them. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for each city's station.

Weatherrain

marketselected outcome

Seattle, WA

rank #1

United States

100¢

▲ 49.5pp

24h change

vol cum

$95

vol 24h

$95

spread

0.01

ends

Aug 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Seattle, WA records measurable precipitation on August 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Measurable precipitation means 0.01 inches or more as reported by the PRECIPITATION (IN) figure in the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for the city's station. A report of trace ("T") does not qualify. The PRECIPITATION (IN) figure measures total liquid-equivalent precipitation and does not distinguish between precipitation types. The observation period is the NWS climate day for KSEA: midnight to midnight local standard time. The final CLI report for a climate day is issued the following morning. This market will resolve according to the NWS Daily Climate Report as published by 2:00 PM ET on the day following the observation date. If multiple versions of the report are issued, the last version published before that time governs. If no figure has been published by that time, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report (CLI) for KSEA, published at https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CLI&issuedby=SEA.

timeline

opened · Aug 28, 2026closedresolved · Aug 30, 2026

Seattle, WA · prices over time

−24h

now

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