What is the current probability for "What will 长鑫科技 (CXMT) rank in market cap at the end of the IPO date?"?

pdata aggregates live probability data for "What will 长鑫科技 (CXMT) rank in market cap at the end of the IPO date?" from predict. See the markets list on this page for current values, refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from predict's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/predict/107751. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

What will 长鑫科技 (CXMT) rank in market cap at the end of the IPO date?

Source: predict·Event ID: 107751·Ends: 1/1/2027

长鑫科技 (ChangXin Memory Technologies Group Co., Ltd. / "CXMT") has received regulatory approval to IPO. This market will resolve according to CXMT's rank by total market capitalization (总市值) among all A-share securities listed and actively trading on the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges, measured at the official closing price on CXMT's first day of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market. "Total market capitalization" (总市值) is defined as the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price on the resolution day. If the company achieves the market capitalization rank listed in the title, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If CXMT has not completed its IPO and begun trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market by December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO in 2026". If no official closing price for CXMT is published on its first day of trading (for example, due to a full-day trading suspension), the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price for CXMT is published, treating that day as the first day of trading. In the case of an exact tie in market capitalization between CXMT and another company, this market will resolve according to the company with the highest rank as listed on Eastmoney's 沪深京A股 board. If both companies were shown as having the same rank, CXMT will be considered to have the higher rank. The official resolution source for this market will be Eastmoney's 沪深京A股 board (https://quote.eastmoney.com/center/gridlist.html#hs_a_board), specifically with the indicator (自选指标) set to 总市值 and sorted by 总市值 descending, captured as soon as the closing share price is available, and before the next day of trading has closed. If this source is unavailable, or returns inconsistent data, resolution will defer to (i) the Shanghai Stock Exchange (sse.com.cn), Shenzhen Stock Exchange (szse.cn), and Beijing Stock Exchange (bse.cn) official listing pages, and if still unresolved, (ii) another widely recognized financial data source such as Wind, Choice, or Tonghuashun (同花顺).