What is the current probability for "World Cup: Silver Ball Winner"?

The contested Predict outcomes for "World Cup: Silver Ball Winner" are Erling Haaland 65%, Kylian Mbappé 34%, Lionel Messi 25% — 10 of 41 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/20/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from predict's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/predict/117299. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Predict

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event41 outcomes

World Cup: Silver Ball Winner

·Sports·ends Jul 20, 2026

vol cum

$11.1k

vol 24h

$11.1k

outcomes

ends

Jul 20, 2026

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 41

SportsSoccerWorld CupFootballAwards

marketselected outcome

Lamine Yamal

rank #1

100¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Jul 20, 2026

This market will resolve to the player who is awarded the Silver Ball award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

timeline

opened · Jun 4, 2026opencloses · Jul 20, 2026

Lamine Yamal · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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