What is the current probability for "Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?

Current Predict odds for "Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?": $500M 46%, $2B 46%, $1B 45% (top 3 of 10 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/1/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from predict's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/predict/13325. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Predict

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event10 outcomes

Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?

·Crypto·ends Jan 1, 2028

vol cum

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vol 24h

$29.6k

outcomes

ends

Jan 1, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

CryptoPre-Market

marketselected outcome

$500M

rank #1

46¢

▼ 11.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$12.4k

vol 24h

$12.4k

spread

0.12

ends

Jan 1, 2028

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

timeline

opened · Aug 10, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2028

$500M · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history

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