What is the current probability for "Highest temperature in Chicago on July 31?"?

The contested Predict outcomes for "Highest temperature in Chicago on July 31?" are 80-81°F 36%, 82-83°F 28%, 77°F or below 14% — 2 of 11 outcomes are already 95%+. Refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 7/31/2026.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from predict's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/predict/263321. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

soontrade on Predict

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event11 outcomes

Highest temperature in Chicago on July 31?

·Culture·ends Jul 31, 2026

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CultureWeather

marketselected outcome

92-93°F

rank #1

United States

99¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Jul 31, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

timeline

opened · Jul 30, 2026closing sooncloses · Jul 31, 2026

92-93°F · prices over time

−24h

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