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event34 outcomes

Who will leave the Trump Administration in 2026?

Gemini·Politics·ends Jan 1, 2027
vol cum
$3.2k
vol 24h
$25
outcomes
34
ends
Jan 1, 2027
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Prediction markets for whether listed officials leave their stated role in the Trump Administration before Jan 1, 2027 (i.e., during calendar year 2026). 'Leave' means the individual permanently ceases to hold the role (e.g., resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, etc.). Temporary leaves of absence/suspensions/recusals do not count unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the role ceases to exist with no plausible successor, contracts may resolve No. If the individual dies while holding the role, contracts may resolve to a last fair price per exchange rules.

Presidential
marketselected outcome
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
rank #1 · resolved: yes
100¢
vol cum
—
vol 24h
—
spread
n/a
ends
Jan 1, 2027

If Lori Chavez-DeRemer leaves as Secretary of Labor before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC, CNN, Deutsche Welle, Financial Times, Fox News, MSNBC, official government records and registries, person, Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and BBC. Lori Chavez-DeRemer must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. Read the full contract terms & conditions.

timeline
opened · Mar 26, 2026closedresolved · Apr 21, 2026
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