Which party will win the U.S. Senate?

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Feb 1, 2027

This contract resolves based on whether the Republican Party controls the U.S. Senate following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Control is defined as holding the most seats in the Senate based on final, official results. A majority consists of at least 51 seats. If two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government, including consideration of the Vice President’s tie-breaking role. Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party. If control cannot be determined by seat totals, control is determined by Senate leadership, as reflected by the party affiliation of the President Pro Tempore. The contract resolves to Yes if the Republican Party controls the Senate and to No otherwise. Read the full contract terms & conditions