What is the current probability for "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?"?

Current Gemini odds for "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?": Before January 01, 2027 13%, Before December 01, 2026 9%, Before November 01, 2026 7% (top 3 of 11 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Jan 2, 2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from gemini's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/gemini/15588. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Gemini

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event11 outcomes

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

·Economy·ends Jan 2, 2027

vol cum

$156.2k

vol 24h

$17.8k

outcomes

ends

Jan 2, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 11

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before contract date, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch.

Macro Indicators

marketselected outcome

Before January 01, 2027

rank #1

13¢

vol cum

—

vol 24h

—

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 1, 2027

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from IMF PortWatch. Read the full contract terms & conditions.

timeline

opened · Apr 8, 2026opencloses · Jan 1, 2027

Before January 01, 2027 · prices over time

−24h

now

no price history yet

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history