What is the current probability for "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?"?

Current Kalshi odds for "When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?": Before Jan 1, 2029 71%, Before Jul 1, 2028 66%, Before Jan 1, 2028 55% (top 3 of 20 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Apr 1, 2029.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXHORMUZNORM-26MAR17. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event20 outcomes

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

·Politics·ends Apr 1, 2029

vol cum

$22.9M

vol 24h

$118.9k

outcomes

ends

Apr 1, 2029

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 20

marketselected outcome

Before Jan 1, 2029

rank #1

IranOmanUnited Arab Emirates

71¢

▼ 1.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$21.5k

vol 24h

$422

spread

0.03

ends

Apr 1, 2029

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Aug 24, 2026opencloses · Apr 1, 2029

Before Jan 1, 2029 · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history