What is the current probability for "10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026"?

Current Kalshi odds for "10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026": Above -30bps 95%, Above -20bps 94%, Above 0bps 77% (top 3 of 11 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/7/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KX10Y2YDATE-26DEC31. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event11 outcomes

10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

·Finance·ends Jan 7, 2027

vol cum

$357

vol 24h

outcomes

ends

Jan 7, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 11

marketselected outcome

Above -30bps

rank #1

United States

95¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$26

vol 24h

spread

0.01

ends

Jan 7, 2027

If the daily 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity minus the 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity for December 31, 2026 is above -30bps, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Jul 8, 2026opencloses · Jan 7, 2027

Above -30bps · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history