Polymarket vs Kalshi: where the odds differ today
As of 15:11 UTC on 13 Nov 2026, Polymarket and Kalshi both price 46 questions that pdata.world could match, and differ most by 10 points: 56% on Polymarket and 47% on Kalshi for Pabel Muñoz in “Quito Mayoral Election Winner”. The table lists all 46, largest gap first. 7 more matched questions are left out because one venue has no firm quote for them.
same question, two prices
46 questions · largest gap first ⚑ matched automatically · verify before relying on it| question |  Polymarket |  Kalshi | gap, points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quito Mayoral Election Winner outcome: Pabel Muñoz | 56% | 47% | 10 |
| #1 Searched Person on Google 2026? outcome: Jensen Huang | 39% | 30% | 9 |
| Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? outcome: Howard Lutnick | 57% | 64% | 7 |
| Argentina Presidential Election First Round Winner outcome: Javier Milei | 64% | 58% | 6 |
| Argentina Presidential Election Winner outcome: Javier Milei | 44% | 49% | 6 |
| Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place outcome: One Nation | 68% | 62% | 6 |
| Will Dune: Part Three be delayed? outcome: Yes | 2% | 7% | 5 |
| South Carolina Presidential Democratic Primary Winner outcome: Jon Ossoff | 30% | 25% | 5 |
| The Game Awards: Best Mobile Game outcome: Arknights: Endfield | 40% | 35% | 5 |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? outcome: Yes | 33% | 28% | 5 |
| Nigerian Presidential Election Winner outcome: Bola Tinubu | 73% | 69% | 4 |
| Will Shrek 5 be delayed? outcome: Yes | 18% | 14% | 4 |
| TIME Person of the Year 2026 outcome: Zohran Mamdani | 23% | 26% | 4 |
| The Game Awards: Best Audio Design outcome: Grand Theft Auto VI | 53% | 56% | 3 |
| The Game Awards: Best Game Direction outcome: Grand Theft Auto VI | 68% | 71% | 3 |
| Waitaki Ōamaru Ward By-Election Winner outcome: Keith Marshall | 69% | 72% | 3 |
| #3 Spotify Artist 2026 outcome: Taylor Swift | 90% | 93% | 3 |
| Top Spotify Album 2026 outcome: Debí Tirar Más Fotos | 97% | 94% | 3 |
| Next CEO of NVIDIA? outcome: Ian Buck | 28% | 31% | 3 |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? outcome: Yes | 5% | 7% | 3 |
| Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2027 outcome: Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms | 10% | 8% | 2 |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 outcome: J.D. Vance | 32% | 34% | 2 |
| The Game Awards: Best Multiplayer outcome: Marathon | 8% | 6% | 2 |
| How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? outcome: Above 66 | 6% | 8% | 2 |
| Top Spotify Artist 2026 outcome: Bad Bunny | 96% | 97% | 2 |
| Argentina Peronist Presidential Nominee outcome: Axel Kicillof | 61% | 59% | 2 |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? outcome: Export-control chip security | 60% | 61% | 2 |
| Top US Spotify Artist 2026 outcome: Drake | 92% | 93% | 2 |
| The Game Awards: Best Narrative outcome: Grand Theft Auto VI | 69% | 70% | 2 |
| Nigerian Senate Election Winner outcome: APC | 80% | 81% | 2 |
| #2 Spotify Artist 2026 outcome: Drake | 93% | 92% | 1 |
| Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton engaged in 2026? outcome: Yes | 2% | 3% | 1 |
| Estonia Parliamentary Election Winner outcome: Centre Party | 45% | 44% | 1 |
| Republican VP Nominee 2028 outcome: Marco Rubio | 20% | 21% | 1 |
| Democratic VP Nominee 2028 outcome: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 11% | 10% | 1 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? outcome: Yes | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? outcome: Yes | 4% | 3% | 1 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? outcome: Yes | 1% | 2% | 1 |
| Ljubljana Mayoral Election Winner outcome: Zoran Janković | 71% | 71% | 1 |
| The Voice Season 30: 2nd Place outcome: Mia Knight | 20% | 19% | 1 |
| 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot? outcome: Marine Le Pen | 93% | 93% | 1 |
| Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO? outcome: Goldman Sachs | 99% | 98% | 1 |
| The Game Awards: Game of the Year outcome: Grand Theft Auto VI | 86% | 85% | 1 |
| Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? outcome: Yes | 1% | 1% | <1 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be delayed? outcome: Yes | 3% | 3% | <1 |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 outcome: Jon Ossoff | 26% | 26% | <1 |
Each row is one question that Polymarket and Kalshi both list, with each venue’s price for the named outcome in percent, as of 15:11 UTC on 13 Nov 2026. The gap is the difference in percentage points, computed before rounding. Each price links to that venue’s event page on pdata.world.
The questions are matched automatically, not checked by hand. Two events are paired only when their titles hold the same words and they have the same shape; where a question has several outcomes, the row compares one outcome that both venues list under the same name (the one with the highest combined price), never one venue’s favourite against the other’s. The match does not read the venues’ resolution rules, sources or deadlines, which can differ. Each venue’s prices are re-read every 15 to 30 minutes, so the two prices in a row can be up to about half an hour apart. Verify both markets before relying on a gap. Only questions with a firm two-sided quote on both venues are listed.