Same question, different price: prediction markets across venues
Published 7 October 2026. Figures as of 09:15 UTC on 7 October 2026.
The same question is often listed on more than one prediction-market venue. At 09:15 UTC on 7 October 2026, pdata compared the prices of 57 such pairs, each read by a person to confirm both venues were asking the same thing. Half of them were within 1.0 percentage point of each other. Most of the large gaps had a plain cause: on one side, nobody had traded in the previous day. And 18 of the 75 pairs pdata's own matching software proposed turned out to be different questions.
How the pairs were found
pdata runs a nightly similarity search over every open event it tracks, using text embeddings of event titles, and flags pairs on different venues that look like the same question. For this report it took the most actively traded flagged pairs in which both sides were a single, open yes-or-no market with a price. Prices are each venue's latest as pdata fetched them, and venues are polled on different cycles, so 45 pairs whose two prices were fetched more than an hour apart were dropped: a gap between prices taken an hour apart can be news rather than disagreement. That left 75 pairs, and a person read the question, the deadline and the wording on both venues for every one of them.
What the matcher got wrong
18 of the 75 pairs (24%) were not the same question. The mistakes are the kind a reader skimming two venues would make too: "Trump, Putin and Xi seen together" against "Trump, Putin and Zelensky seen together", a US Bitcoin reserve against a US Ethereum reserve, being impeached against being impeached and removed, two different crypto projects launching tokens by the same date. These false pairs produced the largest gaps in the whole set — the five biggest were 73, 73, 66, 64, 59 points — so a comparison that trusts title similarity reports disagreement where there is only a different question.
- Kalshi's “Pandemic in 2026?” and Polymarket's “Plague pandemic in 2026?”, 4.8 points apart: Kalshi asks about any pandemic; Polymarket about a plague pandemic.
- Manifold's “Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?” and Polymarket's “Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?”, 21.9 points apart: A military strike on Cuba is not an invasion of Cuba.
- Kalshi's “Pandemic in 2026?” and Polymarket's “New pandemic in 2026?”, 2.5 points apart: The titles may describe different pandemics, and we could not confirm the two resolve on the same terms.
- Kalshi's “Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?” and Manifold's “Will Donald Trump be impeached and removed during his second term?”, 59.0 points apart: Impeached by the House is not impeached and removed.
- Polymarket's “OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?” and Predict's “OpenAI acquired before 2027?”, 10.5 points apart: Announcing AGI is not being acquired.
- Manifold's “Will any German State Prime Minister after a 2026 election be elected with AfD support?” and Polymarket's “Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?”, 5.3 points apart: A state premier elected with AfD votes is not the AfD joining a state government.
- Polymarket's “Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?” and Predict's “Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?”, 0.2 points apart: A hantavirus vaccine is not a hantavirus pandemic.
- Limitless's “Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?” and Polymarket's “Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?”, 66.1 points apart: Two different projects' tokens (Base, Extended).
- Polymarket's “Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?” and Predict's “Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?”, 64.2 points apart: Two different projects' tokens (Extended, Base).
- Limitless's “Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?” and Polymarket's “Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?”, 73.0 points apart: Xi is not Zelensky.
- Limitless's “Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?” and Polymarket's “Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?”, 73.0 points apart: Xi is not Zelensky.
- Kalshi's “Pandemic in 2026?” and Polymarket's “New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?”, 4.6 points apart: Any pandemic is not specifically a coronavirus pandemic.
- Polymarket's “US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?” and Predict's “US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?”, 1.7 points apart: An Ethereum reserve is not a Bitcoin reserve.
- Limitless's “US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?” and Polymarket's “US national Ethereum reserve before 2027?”, 49.6 points apart: A Bitcoin reserve is not an Ethereum reserve.
- Polymarket's “Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?” and Predict's “Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?”, 9.4 points apart: Two different projects' tokens (Felix Protocol, Axiom).
- Limitless's “China x Philippines military clash before 2027?” and Polymarket's “US x China Military clash before 2027?”, 22.2 points apart: A China–Philippines clash is not a US–China clash.
- Kalshi's “Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season?” and Polymarket's “Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?”, 5.5 points apart: Kalshi's window is the 2026 hurricane season; Polymarket's runs to the end of the year.
- Limitless's “Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?” and Polymarket's “Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?”, 0.8 points apart: Acquiring part of Greenland is not invading it.
How far apart the same question was
Across the 57 confirmed pairs the median gap was 1.0 percentage point. 32 pairs were within 1 point and 39 within 2. 15 differed by more than 5 points, and 8 by more than 10.
The large gaps mostly come from markets that had stopped trading. In 13 of the 15 pairs more than 5 points apart, one venue recorded no trades at all in the 24 hours before its price was read, so its price was a stale quote rather than a current view. Where both venues had traded that day — 15 pairs — the median gap was also 1.0 point, and all but one were within 6 points. The exception was a quarterly-earnings question, Delta Air Lines beating estimates, priced at 60.6% on Limitless and 34.0% on Polymarket, where Limitless had traded 10 shares that day.
| question | venue A | price | 24h vol | venue B | price | 24h vol | gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Limitless | 45.1% | none | Polymarket | 2.2% | 7,209 | 42.9 |
| Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings? | Limitless | 60.6% | 10 | Polymarket | 34.0% | 159 | 26.6 |
| Will Loopscale launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Opinion | 32.3% | none | Predict | 10.5% | 121 | 21.8 |
| California Voter ID ballot proposition passes? | Manifold | 30.0% | 169 | Polymarket | 51.0% | none | 21.0 |
| Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? | Manifold | 4.2% | 1,976 | Opinion | 20.2% | none | 16.0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by December 31, 2026? | Opinion | 20.2% | none | Polymarket | 5.5% | 23,261 | 14.7 |
| Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | Polymarket | 22.0% | 433 | Predict | 36.0% | none | 14.0 |
| Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Opinion | 21.0% | none | Predict | 10.0% | 106 | 11.0 |
| Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? | Opinion | 12.0% | none | Polymarket | 2.8% | 80 | 9.2 |
| Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? | Kalshi | 15.0% | 1,532 | Manifold | 6.0% | none | 9.0 |
| Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity] | Manifold | 27.9% | 572 | Predict | 36.0% | none | 8.1 |
| US national Ethereum reserve before 2027? | Limitless | 9.8% | none | Polymarket | 2.8% | 218 | 7.1 |
| Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | Limitless | 22.0% | none | Manifold | 27.9% | 572 | 5.9 |
| Will Revolut launch a US Dollar stablecoin in 2026? [Ṁ10k liquidity] | Manifold | 27.9% | 572 | Polymarket | 22.0% | 433 | 5.9 |
| Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028? | Manifold | 17.0% | none | Polymarket | 11.5% | 3,353 | 5.5 |
| Will fomo.family launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Opinion | 13.3% | none | Predict | 9.5% | 45 | 3.8 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? | Kalshi | 6.0% | 14,079 | Polymarket | 3.1% | 1,011 | 2.8 |
| STRC hits $100 by December 31 | Limitless | 85.8% | none | Predict | 83.5% | 4,059 | 2.3 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? | Polymarket | 85.5% | 5,343 | Predict | 83.5% | 4,059 | 2.0 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | Polymarket | 5.5% | 2,725 | Predict | 7.5% | none | 2.0 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Limitless | 8.5% | none | Predict | 10.3% | 52,936 | 1.8 |
| CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026? | Manifold | 6.0% | 653 | Predict | 4.5% | 101 | 1.5 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Limitless | 5.5% | none | Manifold | 4.2% | 1,976 | 1.3 |
| Will Iran's regime fall in 2026? | Manifold | 4.2% | 1,976 | Polymarket | 5.5% | 23,261 | 1.3 |
| Will Donald Trump attend UFC 333? | Kalshi | 3.0% | 11,223 | Limitless | 1.8% | none | 1.2 |
| CLARITY Act signed into law in 2026? | Manifold | 6.0% | 653 | Polymarket | 5.0% | 32,800 | 1.0 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Limitless | 5.0% | none | Manifold | 6.0% | 653 | 1.0 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Limitless | 24.5% | none | Polymarket | 23.5% | 1,782 | 1.0 |
| Will PepsiCo (PEP) beat quarterly earnings? | Limitless | 83.5% | 18 | Polymarket | 82.5% | 1,634 | 1.0 |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | Polymarket | 73.0% | 5,326 | Predict | 72.0% | 48 | 1.0 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | Polymarket | 1.9% | 43,711 | Predict | 2.5% | 500 | 0.6 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Polymarket | 3.8% | 15,666 | Predict | 3.1% | 277 | 0.6 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Limitless | 3.8% | none | Predict | 3.1% | 277 | 0.6 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | Polymarket | 3.9% | 2,866 | Predict | 3.4% | none | 0.5 |
| Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026? | Limitless | 6.5% | none | Polymarket | 6.0% | 315 | 0.5 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Polymarket | 5.0% | 32,800 | Predict | 4.5% | 101 | 0.5 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Limitless | 5.0% | none | Predict | 4.5% | 101 | 0.5 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Polymarket | 1.3% | 29,590 | Predict | 0.9% | 6,108 | 0.4 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by December 31? | Limitless | 3.3% | none | Predict | 2.9% | 1,055 | 0.4 |
| STRC hits $100 by December 31 | Limitless | 85.8% | none | Polymarket | 85.5% | 5,343 | 0.3 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | Polymarket | 3.1% | 5,096 | Predict | 2.8% | 8,161 | 0.3 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Limitless | 3.3% | none | Polymarket | 3.0% | 256 | 0.3 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by December 31? | Limitless | 3.3% | none | Manifold | 2.9% | 50 | 0.3 |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | Limitless | 9.3% | none | Polymarket | 9.5% | 200 | 0.3 |
| Wil Trump be impeached by the House in 2026? | Manifold | 2.1% | none | Predict | 2.4% | 331 | 0.2 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Limitless | 2.3% | none | Polymarket | 2.4% | 43,559 | 0.1 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Limitless | 5.0% | none | Polymarket | 5.0% | 32,800 | 0.1 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Limitless | 2.8% | none | Polymarket | 2.6% | 8,189 | 0.1 |
| Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Manifold | 2.9% | 50 | Predict | 2.9% | 1,055 | 0.1 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Limitless | 15.5% | none | Polymarket | 15.5% | 170,462 | 0.0 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Limitless | 5.5% | none | Polymarket | 5.5% | 23,261 | 0.0 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Limitless | 17.5% | none | Polymarket | 17.5% | 21,554 | 0.0 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Limitless | 3.8% | none | Polymarket | 3.8% | 15,666 | 0.0 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Polymarket | 76.5% | 5,082 | Predict | 76.5% | none | 0.0 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Limitless | 76.5% | none | Polymarket | 76.5% | 5,082 | 0.0 |
| Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings? | Limitless | 91.5% | none | Polymarket | 91.5% | 579 | 0.0 |
| Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | Limitless | 22.0% | none | Polymarket | 22.0% | 433 | 0.0 |
Identical prices are not agreement
8 pairs matched to the tenth of a percentage point, 7 of them Limitless against Polymarket. In 17 of the 19 Limitless–Polymarket pairs, the Limitless market recorded no trades in the previous 24 hours, yet its price tracked Polymarket's to the tenth of a cent. Two crowds independently arriving at 15.5% would be a striking agreement; a quiet market whose price follows another venue's is not evidence of anything. pdata has not established how those Limitless prices are set. Predict is similar in a documented way: about nine in ten of its markets reference a Polymarket market, so a Predict–Polymarket pair is often one question listed twice.
Which venues overlap
The confirmed pairs are spread unevenly. Kalshi appears in only 3, although it is the second-largest venue pdata tracks. That is a limit of this comparison, not of the overlap: Kalshi and Polymarket mostly list shared topics — elections, central bank decisions, sports — either as multi-outcome events with a market per candidate, rate or score, or as two-team markets with no yes or no side, and this comparison only matches single yes-or-no questions.
| venues | pairs |
|---|---|
| Limitless and Polymarket | 19 |
| Polymarket and Predict | 11 |
| Limitless and Predict | 5 |
| Manifold and Polymarket | 5 |
| Limitless and Manifold | 4 |
| Manifold and Predict | 4 |
| Opinion and Predict | 3 |
| Opinion and Polymarket | 2 |
| Manifold and Opinion | 1 |
| Kalshi and Limitless | 1 |
| Kalshi and Manifold | 1 |
| Kalshi and Polymarket | 1 |
Before comparing two prices
Four checks catch every problem described above. Read both questions in full, not just the titles: a deadline of "before 2027" and "during the 2026 hurricane season" are different questions. Check when each market last traded; a price nobody has traded on for a day is an old price. Compare prices taken at the same time. And check what each venue calls its price: Polymarket shows the midpoint of its order book (or its last trade when the book is wide), Kalshi the last trade, Manifold the level its automated market maker has reached, and Predict the midpoint when there are bids and asks and the asking price when there are no bids. The venue API comparison has the details.
Data and method
Candidate pairs come from pdata's similarity table (nightly embeddings of event titles, with a cross-platform equivalence flag), filtered to open events with exactly one open, priced yes-or-no market on each side, ordered by the less active side's normalised 24-hour volume. Prices and 24-hour volumes are as pdata last fetched them; gaps are absolute differences in percentage points. Each pair was read by hand on 2026-10-07: question, deadline and wording on both venues. Every event here has its own page on pdata.world, and the live pairs are in the API under /api/v1/events/{source}/{id}/similar. Data is published under CC BY 4.0; cite as pdata.world.