What is the current probability for "Nigerian Senate Election Winner"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Nigerian Senate Election Winner": APC 90%, Other 50%, PDP 8% (top 3 of 7 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 1/16/2027.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/927827. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

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event7 outcomes

Nigerian Senate Election Winner

·Politics·ends Jan 16, 2027

vol cum

$1.3k

vol 24h

$1.3k

outcomes

ends

Jan 16, 2027

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 7

africaNigeriaPoliticsElectionsMain ElectionGlobal ElectionsNigerian Election

marketselected outcome

APC

rank #1

Nigeria

90¢

▲ 48.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$397

vol 24h

$397

spread

0.04

ends

Jan 16, 2027

National Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate of Nigeria's National Assembly in this election. If the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate is not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in the market options appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates elected under the specified party in the Senate. Seats will not be combined between parties on the basis of endorsements, alliances, coalitions, or other forms of political cooperation. Any changes in party affiliation or seat holdings after the election, including defections, floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, the results of this election are those declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at the conclusion of the election, including the results of any supplementary or rerun polls conducted to complete the declaration of results for constituencies initially declared inconclusive. Judicial outcomes after the declaration of results, including any election petition tribunal or appellate ruling that nullifies a result, substitutes a declared winner, or orders a fresh election, will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).

timeline

opened · Aug 28, 2026opencloses · Jan 16, 2027

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