What is the current probability for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028"?

Current Polymarket odds for "Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028": Gavin Newsom 18%, Jon Ossoff 15%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14% (top 3 of 52 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 11/7/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from polymarket's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/polymarket/30829. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Polymarket

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event52 outcomes

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

·Elections·ends Nov 7, 2028

vol cum

$1.3B

vol 24h

$392.5k

outcomes

ends

Nov 7, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 52

United StatesElectionsPoliticsUS ElectionWorld ElectionsEarn 4%Primaries

marketselected outcome

Gavin Newsom

rank #1

United States

18¢

▼ 0.4pp

24h change

vol cum

$26.6M

vol 24h

$10.1k

spread

0.00

ends

Nov 7, 2028

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

timeline

opened · Jul 11, 2025opencloses · Nov 7, 2028

Gavin Newsom · prices over time

−24h

now

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