Will Obamacare be repealed?
Yes 23% (+2pp in 24h) on Kalshi as of 16:18 UTC on 13 Nov 2026 for “Will Obamacare be repealed?”. The market has $18 in Kalshi-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold.
If a bill becomes law after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029 that does any of the following: (1) ends the shared responsibility (penalty) provisions for employers, or reduces those penalties to $0; (2) eliminates the expansion of Medicaid eligibility to non-elderly adults with incomes up to 133% of the poverty level; (3) ends the prohibition on coverage exclusions based on pre existing conditions; (4) redefines the term “dependent” for the purposes of the ACA’s employer shared responsibility provisions from meaning a child under 26 to a child under 18 or younger; or (5) ends premium subsidies for individuals whose household incomes are between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level for premiums purchased on an ACA exchange, then the market resolves to Yes.
More specifically, the requirements are that a bill either: ends the shared responsibility (penalty) provisions for employers, or reduces those penalties to $0; eliminates the expansion of Medicaid eligibility to non-elderly adults with incomes up to 133% of the poverty level; ends the prohibition on coverage exclusions based on pre existing conditions; redefines the term “dependent” for the purposes of the ACA’s employer shared responsibility provisions from meaning a child under 26 to a child under 18 or younger; or ends premium subsidies for individuals whose household incomes are between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level for premiums purchased on an ACA exchange. Merely reducing the subsidies to something other than $0 is not sufficient.
