Question 1

What is the current probability for "Which of these bad policies will the US abolish by 2050?"?

Accepted Answer

Current Manifold odds for "Which of these bad policies will the US abolish by 2050?": Affirmative action 79%, the jones act 67%, Disparate impact doctrine 53% (top 3 of 16 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

Question 2

When does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This event resolves on 1/2/2050.

Question 3

How is the probability calculated?

Accepted Answer

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from manifold's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Question 4

Where can I get this data programmatically?

Accepted Answer

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/manifold/z8vGjBFDNxnFZMZ3L2bG. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

Which of these bad policies will the US abolish by 2050?

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