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Will the US be a democracy in 2050?

Manifold·Politics

United States

As of 00:17 UTC on 6 Oct 2026, Manifold prices “Will the US be a democracy in 2050?” at 69%. The market has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 24 related events on Manifold and Kalshi.

69%

vol cum

M3.5k

vol 24h

spread

n/a

ends

Dec 31, 2050

YES 69¢

NO 31¢

As classified by their polity score https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polity_data_series#Scores_for_2018

timeline

opened · Dec 23, 2022opencloses · Dec 31, 2050

Will the US be a democracy in 2050? · prices over time

−24h

now

no price history yet

volume · 24h windows

no volume history

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