Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?
If Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will at least 6 out of the following 10 criteria be met by January 20, 2029? 1. The Insurrection Act is invoked to deploy active-duty military for domestic law enforcement in at least three major US cities. 2. The Department of Justice prosecutes at least five prominent political opponents of Trump on charges widely considered by legal experts to be politically motivated. 3. At least 50,000 federal civil service workers are reclassified as political appointees and replaced with individuals vetted for loyalty to Trump's agenda. 4. The Federal Communications Commission revokes the broadcasting licenses of at least two major news networks critical of the Trump administration. 5. The Supreme Court upholds at least two of the following executive actions that expand presidential powers: a) An executive order allowing the president to fire career civil servants without cause. b) A presidential directive asserting control over independent regulatory agencies traditionally outside direct executive authority. c) An executive action claiming absolute immunity from congressional oversight and subpoenas for both the president and their close advisors. d) A presidential order asserting the power to unilaterally withdraw the United States from international treaties without congressional approval. e) An executive order claiming authority to redirect funds appropriated by Congress for specific purposes to other projects deemed priorities by the president, without congressional approval. 6. Congress passes legislation, or the President issues an executive order, that effectively eliminates the independence of at least two federal agencies (such as the Federal Reserve, FBI, or EPA), placing them under direct White House control. 7. The President successfully removes and replaces at least three inspectors general or other independent watchdogs without Congressional approval, in a manner that legal experts widely consider a violation of existing statutes. 8. A large-scale deportation plan is implemented, resulting in at least three federal court rulings finding significant violations of due process or other civil liberties in the execution of the plan. 9. In at least two swing states, there are credible attempts by state election boards to refuse certification of election results in major Democratic-leaning counties (such as Fulton County, Georgia) during a national election. 10. The Trump administration openly defies at least three separate federal court orders on significant policy matters, with the President or senior officials explicitly stating their intention not to comply with the rulings. The question will resolve as "No" if Trump is elected and fewer than 6 of these criteria are met by January 20, 2029. The question will resolve N/A if Trump does not win in 2024.
