If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?
As of 04:42 UTC on 26 Jul 2026, “6. Trump wins in 2024, opposition candidate wins in 2028 and assumes office” leads “If Trump wins in 2024, how will it affect the transition of power after 2028 election?” on Manifold at 44%, followed by “5. Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028” at 28% and “2. Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated” at 11%, out of 9 outcomes. The event has no Manifold-reported volume in the last 24 hours. pdata.world compares it with 21 related events on Manifold, Polymarket and Kalshi.
In the light of the events of Jan 6, there are some fears that if Trump wins in 2024, the next election cycle in the US will be influenced by him. In this market I'm trying to explore different possible scenarios. The answers for the question are designed to a) be mutually exclusive, and b) cover all possible scenarios. In case I've missed some possibilities, please let me know in the comments, and I'll add respective options (hence the "Other"). In case there's any disagreement the first answer that matches the events wins. Clarification regarding what counts as "opposition": If the election happens, Trump is still active, but doesn't endorse any candidate, then I'll count him as implicitly endorsing the republican candidate, UNLESS he completely breaks any ties with GOP in which case I will count GOP candidate as opposition. In particular, if Trump endorses an independent candidate, both GOP and Democratic candidates count as opposition. Trump is considered incapacitated if he doesn't make active public appearances for at least 6 consecutive months before the end of 2028. Election process is considered significantly changed if the results of the election can be plausibly affected by the changes or if the schedule of the election and power transition is changed. ID requirement is unlikely to change the outcome, so I don't consider it as "significant change". I do not bet on my own questions.
