Trump Odds Tracker
45events
Live odds on Trump-related questions across the prediction markets — impeachment, approval, his agenda, and the news driving the biggest moves.
consensus
Will Trump be impeached?⚑ same question · every platformthe same flagship question priced on each platform that lists it — the gap is where the markets disagree.
the model race
each platform’s standings on the marquee question
KalshiBefore Jan 1, 202867%
Before Oct 1, 202763%
Before Aug 1, 202757%
Before Jul 1, 202749%
Before Jun 1, 202746%
Before May 1, 202741%
Before Apr 1, 202732%
Before Mar 1, 202722%
PolymarketDecember 31, 202762%
June 30, 202743%
December 31, 20262%
marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h
WTkalshi·Before Jan 1, 2028
polymarketWWkalshi·Pete HegsethDTkalshi·Before January 20, 2029
manifold·Will Trump finish his second term?TAkalshi·Above 39.0WTkalshi·Before Jan 1, 2027WWkalshi·Anna KellyWWkalshi·Cuba
polymarket·December 31
polymarket·December 31, 2027WTkalshi·Before his term ends
Will the House impeach Trump?
kalshi·Before Jan 1, 202867¢
▼ 7.0pp
$398.5k
vol 24h
Trump out as President before 2027?
polymarket4¢
▼ 0.3pp
$337.8k
vol 24h
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
kalshi·Pete Hegseth58¢
▲ 17.0pp
$244.2k
vol 24h
Donald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
kalshi·Before January 20, 202931¢
▲ 5.0pp
$230.5k
vol 24h
Will Trump finish his second term?
82¢
▼ 4.2pp
M181.7k
vol 24h
Trump's approval rating on Nov 6, 2026?
kalshi·Above 39.043¢
▲ 7.0pp
$108.5k
vol 24h
Will Trump declare an election emergency?
kalshi·Before Jan 1, 20278¢
▼ 4.0pp
$105.2k
vol 24h
Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
kalshi·Anna Kelly25¢
▼ 4.0pp
$100.9k
vol 24h
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?
kalshi·Cuba7¢
▲ 4.0pp
$62.9k
vol 24h
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
polymarket·December 315¢
▼ 4.0pp
$57.2k
vol 24h
Will Trump be impeached by...?
polymarket·December 31, 202762¢
▼ 12.0pp
$50.2k
vol 24h
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
kalshi·Before his term ends24¢
▼ 5.0pp
$48.5k
vol 24h
polymarketDonald Trump # Truth Social posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?
200+
44¢▼ 34.5pp
kalshiWill Trump's approval rating increase this week? (10/30-11/6)
Above 37.6%
83¢▲ 30.0pp
kalshiWho will leave Trump's Cabinet next?
Pete Hegseth
71¢▲ 29.0pp
kalshiTrump's RCP approval average on Nov 5, 2026?
39.1%
62¢▲ 28.0pp