2026 US Midterms Odds
25events
Live odds for the 2026 US midterm elections — control of the House and Senate — aggregated across the prediction markets.
consensus
Balance of power after the 2026 midterms · platforms disagree by 2pp⚑ same question · every platformthe same flagship question priced on each platform that lists it — the gap is where the markets disagree.
the model race
each platform’s standings on the marquee question
PolymarketDemocrats Sweep61%
R Senate, D House31%
Republicans Sweep7%
D Senate, R House1%
Other0%
KalshiDemocrats sweep59%
D-House, R-Senate30%
Republicans sweep10%
R-House, D-Senate1%
Democrats Sweep59%
R Senate, D House30%
Republicans Sweep10%
D Senate, R House1%
Other0%
marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
polymarket·Democrats Sweep61¢
▲ 1.0pp
$132.8k
vol 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
kalshi·Democrats, 8 to 10%25¢
▲ 1.0pp
$9.6k
vol 24h
Blue wave in 2026?
kalshi·Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?82¢
· 0.0pp
$6.8k
vol 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026?
kalshi·Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?45¢
· 0.0pp
$2.9k
vol 24h
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
predict·Democrats Sweep60¢
▼ 0.6pp
$1.6k
vol 24h
Lauren Boebert admits to sex with staffer before midterms?
polymarket7¢
▼ 22.0pp
$1.3k
vol 24h
2026: Trump's dream year?
kalshi·Yes3¢
▼ 1.0pp
$1.3k
vol 24h
Red wave in 2026?
kalshi·Yes7¢
· 0.0pp
$996
vol 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
polymarket·Other46¢
$986
vol 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
kalshi·Democrats, ≥2%89¢
· 0.0pp
$960
vol 24h
Will the midterms happen on time?
kalshi·Yes85¢
▲ 1.0pp
$707
vol 24h
Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
56¢
▼ 0.3pp
M665
vol 24h
polymarketLauren Boebert admits to sex with staffer before midterms?
7¢▼ 22.0pp
polymarketHow many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
47–49 and 193–207
33¢▲ 4.1pp
polymarketBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
61¢▲ 1.0pp
kalshi2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Democrats, 8 to 10%
25¢▲ 1.0pp