2026 US Midterms Odds
28events
Live odds for the 2026 US midterm elections — control of the House and Senate — aggregated across the prediction markets.
consensus
Balance of power after the 2026 midterms · platforms disagree by 1pp⚑ same question · every platformthe same flagship question priced on each platform that lists it — the gap is where the markets disagree.
the model race
each platform’s standings on the marquee question
PolymarketDemocrats Sweep100%
D Senate, R House0%
R Senate, D House0%
Republicans Sweep0%
Other0%
KalshiDemocrats sweep100%
D-House, R-Senate0%
R-House, D-Senate0%
Republicans sweep0%
Democrats Sweep99%
R Senate, D House1%
Republicans Sweep0%
D Senate, R House0%
Other0%
marketprob · Δ24hvol 24h
BWkalshi·Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?2Mkalshi·Democrats, 12 to 14%BTkalshi·Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?RWkalshi·YesMDkalshi·Yes
polymarket·Democrats 12-14%MBkalshi·Will Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House AND hold 48 or more seats in the Senate?2Mkalshi·Democrats, ≥2%2Mkalshi·120 to 124.99 million
polymarket·Dem sweep; Ceasefire brokenpolymarket·Dem sweep; No $3.50 gaspolymarket·Dem sweep; No recession
Blue wave in 2026?
kalshi·Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?99¢
▼ 0.5pp
$2.6M
vol 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
kalshi·Democrats, 12 to 14%77¢
▲ 10.0pp
$691.9k
vol 24h
Blue tsunami in 2026?
kalshi·Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?99¢
▼ 0.2pp
$687.6k
vol 24h
Red wave in 2026?
kalshi·Yes1¢
· 0.0pp
$622.2k
vol 24h
Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
kalshi·Yes98¢
▼ 1.0pp
$260.4k
vol 24h
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
polymarket·Democrats 12-14%74¢
▲ 4.6pp
$45.6k
vol 24h
Midterms: Blue trickle?
kalshi·Will Democrats hold 215 or more seats in the House AND hold 48 or more seats in the Senate?99¢
· 0.0pp
$40k
vol 24h
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
kalshi·Democrats, ≥2%99¢
· 0.0pp
$34.6k
vol 24h
2026 Midterms: U.S. House turnout?
kalshi·120 to 124.99 million64¢
▼ 1.0pp
$31.1k
vol 24h
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
polymarket·Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken99¢
▲ 2.4pp
$12k
vol 24h
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?
polymarket·Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas94¢
▲ 3.3pp
$6.6k
vol 24h
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
polymarket·Dem sweep; No recession65¢
▲ 0.3pp
$3.6k
vol 24h
polymarketHow many Independents will be elected to Congress?
0
87¢▲ 32.0pp
polymarketDem sweep & Gaza ceasefire Phase II by end of 2027?
Dem sweep; No Phase II
92¢▲ 13.0pp
kalshiMidterms: Biggest blue wave since 2008?
Yes
90¢▲ 13.0pp
kalshi2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
D+3 to D+4.9
13¢▲ 12.0pp