What is the current probability for "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)"?

Current Kalshi odds for "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)": Democrats, 8 to 10% 24%, Democrats, 10 to 12% 22%, Democrats, 6 to 8% 18% (top 3 of 10 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on Feb 1, 2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

·Politics·ends Feb 1, 2028

vol cum

$1.6M

vol 24h

$33.6k

outcomes

ends

Feb 1, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

Democrats, 8 to 10%

rank #1

United States

24¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$147.1k

vol 24h

$7.5k

spread

0.01

ends

Feb 1, 2028

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Feb 4, 2026opencloses · Feb 1, 2028

Democrats, 8 to 10% · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history