2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Markets

• Republicans win

  • Yes: 17¢
  • No: 83¢

• Democrats, 10 to 12%

  • Yes: 15¢
  • No: 85¢

• Democrats, 4 to 6%

  • Yes: 12¢
  • No: 88¢

• Democrats, 2 to 4%

  • Yes: 5¢
  • No: 95¢

• Democrats, 16% and above

  • Yes: 2¢
  • No: 98¢

• Democrats, 8 to 10%

  • Yes: 20¢
  • No: 80¢

• Democrats, 6 to 8%

  • Yes: 16¢
  • No: 84¢

• Democrats, 14 to 16%

  • Yes: 6¢
  • No: 94¢

• Democrats, 12 to 14%

  • Yes: 6¢
  • No: 94¢

• Democrats, 0 to 2%

  • Yes: 3¢
  • No: 97¢