What is the current probability for "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)"?

Current Kalshi odds for "2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)": Democrats, 8 to 10% 24%, Democrats, 6 to 8% 20%, Democrats, 10 to 12% 19% (top 3 of 10 outcomes), refreshed continuously.

When does this market resolve?

This event resolves on 2/1/2028.

How is the probability calculated?

pdata reads the latest market prices directly from kalshi's public API and normalizes them to a 0-100 probability scale. See https://pdata.world/methodology for details on per-platform conventions.

Where can I get this data programmatically?

The JSON endpoint is https://api.pdata.world/api/v1/events/kalshi/KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIN-27NOV03. An MCP server with 9 tools is available at https://api.pdata.world/mcp. Full agent guide: https://pdata.world/agents.md.

opentrade on Kalshi

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event10 outcomes

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

·Politics·ends Feb 1, 2028

vol cum

$779.6k

vol 24h

$11.3k

outcomes

ends

Feb 1, 2028

outcomesclick to inspect →

showing 5 of 10

marketselected outcome

Democrats, 8 to 10%

rank #1

United States

24¢

· 0.0pp

24h change

vol cum

$53.7k

vol 24h

spread

0.01

ends

Feb 1, 2028

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

timeline

opened · Feb 4, 2026opencloses · Feb 1, 2028

Democrats, 8 to 10% · prices over time

−24h

now

volume · by outcomehover a column to inspect

no volume history