Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
As of 19:23 UTC on 22 Oct 2026, “Democrats control Congress” leads “Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election” on Manifold at 67% (+3pp in 24h), followed by “Democrats control House, Republicans control Senate” at 25% (-2pp in 24h) and “Republicans control Congress” at 8% (-1pp in 24h), out of 4 outcomes. The event has M$12 in Manifold-reported 24-hour volume. pdata.world compares it with 20 related events on Predict, Manifold, Polymarket, Kalshi, Opinion and Myriad.
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress. Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with. A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party. Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control. While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control". Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time. There will be no waiting period to observe how elected officials vote after taking office. Wikipedia's verdict on control will stand unless the creator strongly disagrees with it.
